thoughtmechanics

Perhaps the most significant aspect of the current call to demonstrate in Beirut is the fact that the demonstrators and the parties behind them have managed to avoid making the whole thing a sectarian affair.

Even though there has been much effort to cast the current crisis as one that is about the division between Sunnis and Shia, or one between pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian forces, the matter remains in its core a political divergence on how best to govern Lebanon.

In these most dangerous hours and days of the crisis, it is of paramount importance to maintain the balance of perspective on all sides and to insist that this remain a political difference, and not a sectarian one.

Hezbollah and its allies cut across all sectarian divides. There are Shias and Sunnis and Christians who are demonstrating against the present government. The fact that all the leaders have called on supporters to refrain from acts of violence, to avoid carrying sect symbols and banners, and to avoid inflaming sectarian differences is a credit to them, and to the masses who have heeded their warnings.

Further, the fact that the people in the street have heeded their leader’s warnings goes to show that the accusations that pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian forces actively seek and stand to gain from civil strife and war in Lebanon is a myth. It is much more probable that those who stand to gain from such strife and disorder are those who are now in power and who feel that it is slipping from their hands.

The facts on the ground tell the following story, which puts fear in the heart of those who support the status quo ante: The Lebanese Shia are the largest sect, a truly democratic system would bring them to power and in control of the political scene in Lebanon. This prospect is anathema to the US, Israel and Arab states in the region. The last thing that the US, Israel or the Arab states want is a fully democratic Lebanon.

The US and Israel, as well as the Arab regimes in the region, have seen what ‘democracy’ means in the Middle East in the failed experiment in Iraq. With Iran emerging as the winner in the Iraq-US war, the last thing that the White House needs now is for Iran to emerge a winner in Lebanon.

In order to avoid this contingency, planners in the US may have to admit to themselves that the Israeli failure over the summer to defeat Hezbollah may mean that another war must be fought. Who is to fight this war? A civil war in Lebanon may not be the best way to do it. Hezbollah will probably emerge victorious from such a war since it is the best trained and equipped armed force in Lebanon.

The only other option available would be for Israel to get involved again, but this would have to be orchestrated very carefully, as the UNIFIL force in Lebanon is now authorized to fire on anyone who provokes it. Hezbollah has been very careful to not provoke UNIFIL. Israel, on the other hand, has not. In fact, French forces have come quite close to firing on Israeli planes.

But perhaps there is still another option: The US could invade Lebanon at the request of the Lebanese government in order to restore order and protect it. Does this sound far off? It is, but then again, the US has done even more stupid things in the past. The Lebanese should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst…